Predictions for the 2019 Academy Awards
All of my life I have been an avid fan of the Academy Awards telecast. This is the first year I don’t even know if I will watch. I have no enthusiasm for any of the films or any of the actors. A large number of movies I really liked didn’t get nominated (“A Quiet Place,” I Can Only Imagine,” “Upgrade”). I am not on the “Roma,” “Cold War,” or “Vice” bandwagon and I honestly can’t see an action movie like “Black Panther” winning. So this year instead of my wonderful wife cooking a steak dinner, maybe we will just go out to eat instead. But before I do, here are my predictions.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: The nominees are Amy Adams (“Vice”), Marina de Tavira (“Roma”), Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), Emma Stone (“The Favourite”) and Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”). I honestly didn’t like any of these performances. It is not that they weren’t any good but in the case of Adams and King their scenes were much too brief to truly create a character. On the other hand Stone and Weisz were the stars of “The Favourite” and should be in the Best Actress category if anything. As for de Tavira she was average in a movie I truly disliked.
WHO SHOULD WIN: I will go with Regina King because in those few scenes she had she was very good. WHO WILL WIN: I think the Academy will see it the same way.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: The nominees are Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”), Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”), Sam Elliott (“A Star Is Born”), Richard E Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”), Sam Rockwell (“Vice”). It is easy for me to toss out Driver and Rockwell. They are definitely the weakest of the group. I would really love for Elliott to take home the prize but there just hasn’t been a groundswell of any kind for him. Grant probably has a better chance because he and McCarthy elevated each other’s performance in an under the radar film. But Ali has such dignity and grandness as Don Shirley in “Green Book” that I don’t think anyone else can touch him.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Sam Elliott. I would love to hear his drawling acceptance speech and also want to get a good glimpse of his wife Katherine Ross. WHO WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali is just the man of the hour and “Green Book” showcases his talent perfectly.
BEST ACTRESS: The nominees are Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”), Glenn Close (“The Wife”), Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”), Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”), Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”). There are enough anti-”Roma” votes to stop Aparicio from serious consideration. McCarthy was good as previously stated but the movie was too low key. Gaga was going strong and then hit a wall. It looks like she’ll get an Oscar for Best Song but that is it. So it comes down to Close and Colman. I would put Colman in the Supporting Actress category which leaves the win to the super talented Close.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Close gave an intensely perfect performance in “The Wife” letting her facial expressions do most of the acting for her. She was brilliant and finally Hollywood can give her the just reward she deserves. WHO WILL WIN: Close, and it won’t even be close.
BEST ACTOR: The nominees are Christian Bale (“Vice”), Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”), Willem Dafoe (“At Eternity’s Gate”), Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”), Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”). I would toss out Cooper and Dafoe at the onset. Cooper never got any momentum going either for acting or directing, which is a shame. Dafoe is lucky to have a nomination for a movie very, very few saw. Viggo packed on the pounds as did Bale while Malek relied on false teeth to make an impression. For me Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney was one note, while Viggo’s ran the gamut. Still it was Malek who was totally absorbed by his role.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Oh Viggo, how I wish it could be you. You met Ali head to head and gave a perfectly balanced movie to audiences. WHO WILL WIN: Malek, and I won’t be disappointed. He was lightning in a bottle, especially at the very end of the movie.
BEST DIRECTOR: The nominees are Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”), Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”), Adam McKay (“Vice”), Pawel Pawlikowski (“Cold War”). I was pulling for Bradley Cooper or John Krasinski (“A Quiet Place”) to get nominated so I would have a dog in this race. Didn’t happen. This is the category I care least about.
WHO SHOULD WIN: By process of elimination I would say Spike Lee. At least his movie entertained and I can’t say that for the rest of them. WHO WILL WIN: Even though it is a Netflix movie, Cuaron will be chosen for “Roma”
BEST PICTURE: The nominees are “Black Panther,” “BlacKkKlansman,” “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “The Favourite,” “Roma,” “Green Book,” “A Star Is Born,” ”Vice”. There is a surge of support for “Black Panther.” It made a lot of money and did it with a basically all black cast. That makes it of historical impact. But the real battle will be between “Roma” and “Green Book.” At one time it looked like “A Star Is Born” was a lock but that didn’t last. “The Favourite” is not anyone’s favorite. Both “Vice” and BlacKkKlansman” are too political to get the nod.
WHAT SHOULD WIN: I liked and admired “A STAR IS BORN” and it should take home the “Best” title. WHAT WILL WIN: I feel ABY (Anything But “Roma”) so I won’t be disappointed when “Green Book” takes home the trophy.
The 91st Academy AwArds will air February 24 at 8PM EST on ABC.
Jackie K Cooper
www.jackiekcooper.com
You were right in all but one of your predictions! That was impressive and entertaining. Thank you for your dedication!
Best regards!
Damm, on point on almost everything, I didn’t see the green book as a winner.
Got lucky this year.I was sure Glenn Close was going to win.
Why did you disliked Roma?
I felt it had beautiful cinematography and solid acting. But the “slice of life” storyline didn’t engage me at all. I also thought the pacing of the movie was off. I saw it on the big screen, not Netflix so I was not hampered in my observation.